View the chart data
| Forecast released | U.S. dollars per barrel | Status |
|---|---|---|
| September 9, 2026 | 91 | EIA projection; derived as 105 minus the stated 14-dollar revision |
| October 6, 2026 | 105 | EIA projection; inputs finalized October 1 |
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) lowered its yearly earnings outlook on October 9 despite stronger travel sales. [1]
Travel demand holds up
September-quarter adjusted revenue rose 16% with flat flight capacity. Premium revenue grew 18%. [1]
Delta had already described a broader revenue base in July. Premium seats, loyalty, cargo and aircraft maintenance help the airline earn beyond basic tickets. Its June-quarter report put diversified revenue at 61% of the total. That earlier figure describes the business model, rather than a new September result. [2]
“Demand remains strong, supported by consumers' growing preference for experiences and travel”
September-quarter results · October 9, 2026 [1]
July's earnings targets move lower
Adjusted 2026 earnings are now forecast at $5.10–$5.60 per share, versus July's $6.50–$7.50. Fuel costs exceeded July's expectations by more than $500 million. [1][2]
July's September-quarter adjusted earnings target was $2.00–$2.50 per share. The actual result was $1.72, versus $1.15 under standard accounting. Adjusted figures remove items defined by management; they are not interchangeable with the standard measure. [2][1]
The free-cash-flow forecast fell to about $2.5 billion from July's $3–$4 billion. Adjusted net debt remains about $13.4 billion. Cash left after investment helps fund debt reduction. [1][2]
The oil outlook adds uncertainty
The Energy Information Administration's October 6 outlook projects Brent crude averaging $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter. That is $14 above its September forecast. It is a forecast for a global crude benchmark, rather than Delta's jet-fuel purchase price. [3]
The agency points to volatile oil flows and tight fuel markets. Its model uses information finalized October 1 and excludes later developments. A forecast can change as supplies move, so the chart should not be read as today's market price. [3]
Travelers face higher fares, too
The latest available U.S. consumer-price report showed airline fares rising 23.4% over the year through August. Overall consumer prices rose 3.4%. The fare index covers the wider market; it does not measure Delta's passenger growth or individual ticket prices. [4]
For households, higher travel prices can leave less room for other purchases. That is a possible economic consequence, rather than a spending change established by this report. The next CPI release, covering September, is scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. It will update the inflation picture. [4]
Delta's challenge is to keep travel revenue ahead of fuel and other expenses while reducing debt.